Wednesday, January 26, 2005

More Good News For Prospective Mac Lovers

Apple has dropped the prices on several popular upgrades to its new Mac Mini.

These include the larger harddrive, faster Superdrive, extra memory, and the Bluetooth and Airport options. All of the things that make the Mac Mini even MORE usable for tech weenies like me. Could this indicate that initial sales are high enough to allow some bigger discount on these components from Apple's suppliers? This looks like a good sign that Apple will stay red hot.

Shopping For Integrity

But if you don't have it, you can't buy it. It seems that employees who signed over their 'worthless' shares upon leaving Epinions.com are a little miffed with the Venture Capaitalists and Founder who stayed on and got rich.

Any wonder? Most of the employees who are suing probably had little choice about their departure, and any severance may have been contingent on their 'cooperation' in signing documents presented to them during their exit. This is a common scenario that layed-off employees find themselves in, with not job to come to the next day that severance check looms large in their personal survival. You sing what you need to sign to get the immediate cash.

Just another way that those in authority screw those who aren't. Of course, it also helps to buy off your HR and Legal advisors.

Tuesday, January 25, 2005

It's The Economy, Stupid - Redux

The rising price of oil and threats to its supply are beginning to be noticed in the home of venture capital and entrepreneurs: Silicon Valley.

The rising costs of our current energy sources are making alternatives much more competitive, and entrepreneurs are beginning to make bets on new technologies that could add momentum to a shift to new energy sources around the world.

Research Flows Unimpeded By Ban

Despite the Bush Administration's ban on new stem cell lines, researchers are seeking out new avenues for development. Much of this work is due to the ban, but some is almost surely inspired by the issues with the existing stem cell lines.

A study has been published that says the current federally approved stem cell lines are contaminated. This could lead to rejection of any therapies that are derived from descendants of these lines, a long standing complication.

Sun Does It

Today is the day that Sun will announce their Open Source License for Solaris. A move that I had previously discussed here.

No we get to see what happens.

Changes at PalmOne

PalmOne has been doing well, but their stock took a hit after news that their CEO was leaving hit the wires. The Treo is a hit, but the PDA business seems to be foundering.

Is it possible that the PDA business is mature and the media just considers anything that doesn't grow in double digits to be a failure? It's instructive to look at the numbers behind the statements the press makes to get a sense of where their coming from.

Revenue Up 39%; Operating Margin Is 8.1%

MILPITAS, Calif., Dec. 16 /PRNewswire-FirstCall/ -- palmOne, Inc. (Nasdaq: PLMO) today reported revenue of $376.2 million for the second quarter of fiscal year 2005, ended Nov. 26, which is up approximately 39 percent from the $271.2 million reported during the comparable quarter a year ago.

Net income was $24.7 million, or $0.48 per diluted share. This compares to income from continuing operations in the year-ago period of $2.6 million, or $0.07 per diluted share.


It's still hard to see where the press derives their 'feelings' from regarding the PDA business.

Monday, January 24, 2005

Big Blue Conspiracy Theory

Speaking of IBM, some wild writers are speculating about the strategy behind the sale of IBM's Personal Computer Business to China's Lenovo. Needless to say, there were no aliens involved and the government denies all involvement.

The truth is out there.

It Is NOT A Cult!

David McCandless has a view of The Apple Store Of The Future. This page needs no comment ;-)

Sony Admits Losing Face?

The Heir Apparent to run Sony, admitted to foreign journalists that Sony missed the boat on digital music players by insisting on their proprietary ATRAC format and dismissing MP3.

I guess it smarts a bit to see a computer company on top of the consumer electronics gadget throne, selling digital music players. Kinda makes you wonder, with IBM dumping their PC Business due to low margins, what can you really say about Sony's move into the Personal Computer space in order to stave off just this kind of competition. There seem to be some strategic issues with running this company that need to be addressed.

TiVo Deathwatch Continues

Even the folks in Silicon Valley are wondering when the lights will go out at Tivo. Boy, it's too bad innovators don't have deep enough pockets to pursue a patent-and-protect strategy, or they might have been able to lock up their technology via the legal system.

Unfortunately, their first-mover strategy has been hampered by problems with execution and securing strong partnerships that prevented their partners from seeking alternative solutions. Sometimes that's the way it goes. But as noted on this blog previously, don't count them out yet. There are a lot of moves left in this game.

SCO Wins One

SCO won a marginal victory in this ruling, which directs IBM to turn over all source code and designer's notes related to the case for AIX.

I've seen the AIX source code, and they're in for a lot of work. It usually arrives in the form of some 5000 source files loaded into a single folder on a CD, with no explanation of how it all fits together. This is how IBM treated a 'Partner'.

This is still a big paper chase and they're in for some tough days. The AIX code was professionally written and is the result of critical reviews and a strong software development process. Although the Linux code has a lot of these aspects in common, it is the product of a Different Team, and with different team members, you will get something completely different. Take it from a lifelong software geek who has worked in shops that ranked from SEI Level 3 down to -1, there won't be much to see.

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Senator, I've seen AIX source code, I've written AIX source code, you sir, are not AIX source code...

Thursday, January 20, 2005

The Beginning Of Litigation Sometimes Marks the End Of Innovation

The RTOS market is always interesting, you really need a scorecard to know who's coming and going and who's partnering with whom.

Within the last couple of years, Green Hills went from being a vendor of compilers and software development tools in the Embedded Software Market (meaning they worked WITH Real-Time Operating System (RTOS) vendors) to offering their own RTOS with some significant enhancements for the Aerospace market.

It looks like one of their premier RTOS vendor 'partners' is somewhat upset over this and is doing the only thing they can do. Being intimately familiar with Wind River's attitude towards 'partners' (think Microsoft and PC vendors as portrayed in the media) I'm not really suprised at this, though at best, it seems like a delaying or FUD move intended to grease the skids on whatever key sale Wind River and Green Hills are both pursuing at the moment.

Those who can't innovate ...

Mac Mini - Voiding The Warranty

Apple fans are already prying open the new machines to see what makes them tick, and being pleasantly suprised.

Motherboard techies are so far impressed with the design and manufacturing prowess on display in the diminutive new Mac. I wonder which contract manufacturer is actually building these things for Apple?

Wednesday, January 19, 2005

RIAA Clones Orrin Hatch in California

The entertainment industry has taken their lobbying efforts to the state level in a bid to outflank their opponents. Not content to wait for the Supreme Court to make their ruling, a state senator in California is drafting a bill to make developing or distributing software that does not PREVENT sharing copyrighted material illegal. What's next? Will it be illegal to trade baseball cards?

NonBeliever!

Some people have made quite a good living reporting 'news' from the PC industry, and just can't stomach the Competition.

Of course, smart folks who love Macs have an answer. Here is a fine response to the 'Not as good as a budget PC' argument that is being echoed by so many columnists these days.

Sun Gets Open Source License, Frees Solaris

In a bid to create the same sort of network effects that Linux enjoys, Sun gets a stamp of approval for their open software license.

They are hoping to generate support among developers for their brand of UNIX, and will be shipping their Free Solaris for X86 next week. I'm not really sure what they hope to accomplish, but this effort should be better received than Microsoft's paltry free source efforts among software developers, most of whom have strong feelings about UNIX.

This should put Solaris on equal footing with Linux. It may prove easy to port applications from Linux to Solaris, and opening up the internals may lead to better performing applications on mission critical tasks. From an engineering perspective, it's an interesting move, but it's not an elegant hack.

From the marketing perspective, maybe I'm just not smart enough to see it yet, but I'm not really excited about it either. Maybe I need to read Jonathan Schwart's blog or sit in on a sales call with a Sun sales team to get the gist of this effort. Right now, I don't see it.

I Think I Know Why Hector Ruiz Has The Urge To Puke

The press is quoting the analysts conference call,

But I think there's another reason.

Tuesday, January 18, 2005

New Free Software From Dominant Player in Industry That is Not From Seattle

Google has a new free software package that helps users find, edit, and sort photos on their home computers.

The software also makes is easy to post your photos on Blogger (owned by Google), just one of many ways that they are using the software to co-market their services.

Sounds like Google learned a thing or two from Microsoft. A theory of mine confirmed here.

Yup, it's the free Internet Explorer strategy redux.

TiVo's Show Isn't Ending Yet

TiVo still has a few tricks up it's sleeve.

They might be losing a dominant position with DirecTV, but this deal with Microsoft is a MAJOR accomplishment if they can execute the play. The key is being able to get the content from your set top box into your portable, wether it's a laptop, handheld, or media console. The cable companies may be rolling out DVR's, but the content is locked down in the box.

TiVo is taking it on the road.

The DirecTV deal isn't necessarily a done deal either. Imagine new DirecTV customers being presented a choice between a Digital Video Recorder from a company that invented the device, and a DVR from some new company that the foreign guy who owns the network just happens to own. The player from Murdoch's other outfit better be 10x cheaper or 10x better, or it won't be replacing the incumbent.

No more Joy in Sunville!

Bill Joy joins venture firm Kleiner Perkins.

He's an entrepreneur.
He's a crack software designer.
He's Batman.

There's just no stopping this Joy. When he left Sun, he said it was to pursue new business opportunities. What he didn't mention was that he would be pursuing all the good ones at the same time. Serial entrepreneurs are so passe', Bill Joy is launching a new category: The Parallel Entrepreneur! Not content to park his interest in just one new startup, he'll be dating, er, advising multiple startups to better spread his wisdom across Silicon Valley.

Baud rate to be determined by economic outlook.

Mac mini Hits The Road

This is just too cool.

This firm does auto restorations and has been putting PCs into the dash for a while, including Macs. The Mac mini will make their lives a lot easier. What's next? Big rigs, airplane seats, phone booths? Think they could use it on the Space Shuttle?

I'd be willing to make a pretty good wager that one Mac mini has more processing power than was originally installed in the Shuttle when it first flew.

Dell Disses iPod, Rumble Planned

This guy doesn't realize he' a dinosaur.

Yeah, Dell has a great business model.
Yeah, they've been really successful for a very long time.
Yeah, they know the PC business.

But if you're good at corporate strategy and really on top of your industry, do you let THIS GUY be your spokesman? And you let him sound like some juvenile crying about the Prom King? Yeah, it may not last, but he's getting some tonight and you're not, so just grow up!

If this guy is angling for Mike's office, I think he just fell down the ladder.

People are tired of me-too computers and gray boxes, they want something that's really cool. Apple has tapped into something that Dell and HP just don't get. And they know it.

Slow Sun Rise Beats No Sun Rise

Jim Kerstetter over at BusinessWeek agrees with me, Sun is a long term investment.

You don't get that many smart, aggressive, and talented folks in one place and fail. Sun appears to have finally come around to a strategy that they can live with, and hopefully thrive on, but it won't be like the go-go years of the late 90's for quite some time. This is definitely a buy-and-hold stock.

And pray.

Monday, January 17, 2005

Moto Back in the Saddle Again

It's possible that Motorola could see some gains this quarter as Samsung has failed to deliver updated products for the holiday shopping season, and Motorola, uncharacteristically, did not make the same mistake.

Hello Moto! It's possible that the man from Sun, Ed Zander, has found a way to instill a sense of urgency on the technical and marketing folks at Motorola. We're really not accustomed to accusing Motorola of having 'good timing' with their offerings. I guess something had to change after the company shrunk by half during the last slowdown.

Historically, (speaking as a Motorola alum here) the conventional wisdom, and documented history both show Motorola to be a great engineering company. The flip side of that reputation is that they aren't especially noted for their marketing prowess, but who would be when they get compared to a marketing juggernaut like Intel all the time? Unfortunately, after years of getting beat up by Andy Grove and his cohorts, a kind of fatalism develops. The result is a slew of me-too marketing campaigns like Digital DNA etc. that do nothing but inspire chuckling in your competitors and resignation within the ranks.

Of course, when half of half of you co-workers (and possibly the entire Marketing Department of which I am an Alum) have disappeared, and you have a new boss, it's possible to create something new and forget the malaise of the past. Three cheers for Motorola and the here's hoping for continued success in executing their strategy.

GoogleCosm?

Is Google looking to jack up search speed by controlling the pipe as well as the Search Engine?

C-Net reports that Google is buying up Dark Fiber. Dark Fiber is fiber optic cabling that has been installed but remains unused. Thousands of miles of this 'Dark Fiber' exists as the major telco's and others went on a building spree in the 90's in anticipation of a market that eventually imploded from too much supply and too little demand. Now that same 'Dark Fiber' is available for pennies on the dollar though the price is beginning to move up as new speculators are starting to buy up the excess.

Shades of George Gilder! Could the Telecosm ride again? Inquiring minds need to know: "Did I short my Level3 stock too soon?"

Friday, January 14, 2005

Use A Phone, Go To Jail!

These folks just can't buy a break. It seems that some new innovative uses of camera phones are being highly discouraged, even in the third world. Aside from offending some judges, the latest offenders have managed to offend (at least western) society. What's next? Will criminals start using their camera phones to brag about their exploits? This kinda thing begs for a '1984' Orwellian type of solution. And that's just a slippery slope.

Amazon in Orbit

Jeff Bezos is hot on the heels of Richard Branson and Paul Allen.: "Blue Origin, the secretive space exploration company founded by Amazon.com CEO Jeff Bezos, on Thursday quietly announced plans to build a testing facility on a remote ranch in western Texas."

Is this just pie-in-the-sky, or just what happens when too much money meets too much ego. Yeah, space ships are the rich's new toys since yachts are becoming passe`.

Thursday, January 13, 2005

Yup, it's a Digital Entertainment Company, not a PC seller

Yup, Apple's identity in the free media is shifting in the direction that they have envisioned.

They realized a couple of years ago, it's not about PC's anymore. Of course, when you don't have a large installed base, it's easier AND more imperative to be innovative. It's always more fun to be the underdog, especially when you know that you're better at this game than the top dog. Class and talent DO count for something.

TiVo co-founder Ramsay stepping down as CEO

Speaking of DVR's:

There's trouble in TiVo'ville: "Comcast Cable announced its DVR service last month. TiVo's partner, DirecTV, the satellite television provider, said last week that it would introduce its own DVR service later this year, using software from its sister company NDS Group, a TiVo technology competitor."

This should have happened 6 to 12 months ago when it first became apparent that DirecTV was looking to replace TiVo. This is an extremely difficult transition for the company, with the announcement alone possibly killing off TiVo's subscriber growth in the very short term and any potential partners certainly way off in the long term. And they think they'll be profitable next year?

IPod's allure propels Apple to record profit

Good news from Apple:

Apple said the iPod's cachet is extending to Apple's traditional business, Macintosh computers.: " It shipped 1 million Macs over the holiday season, the largest such shipment in four years. Sales were up 26 percent compared with a year ago."

The press is pushing the 'halo' effect angle, strongly believing that people are scrambling to buy Macs just because they have the same logo as the iPod. I've really got to disagree with this, the logo is merely getting people to pay more attention than they have in the past to Apple's Macintosh products, and the sales come from their recognition of genuine value. With sales of the Mac going this well before the announcement of the Mac mini, what's going to happen this year? (Assuming they can solve their traditional component supply problems and satisfy the demand they're going to see.)

Wednesday, January 12, 2005

Mac mini - a killer Home Theater PC in the making? | PVRblog

Vindication! It appears I'm not the only one to see the potential I mentioned in my previous post: Mac mini - a killer Home Theater PC in the making? | PVRblog

This article goes into a lot of detail for the do-it-yourselfer, but I'm still looking for more iLife level software tools from Apple to make this work seamlessly in Home Entertainment Environments.

Mac mini closes value gap against Windows computers

The new Mac mini has a lot of people speculating on it's impact on the PC market. Here's one take:

MercuryNews.com | 01/12/2005 | Mac mini closes value gap against Windows computers: "By sliding under the $500 mark, Apple has blown open the castle doors and made the Mac's excellent software truly affordable to Windows users. I don't expect Microsoft's choke hold on PCs to relax overnight, but I do think Apple for the first time in a generation has a fighting chance to climb out of the low single digits in market share for home computers."

There's another aspect that a lot of people have missed so far. The video connectors for the Mac mini include an S-Video connector for your home entertainment system. Could this be the machine Apple intends to use to invade the living room? Gotta admit that the form factor is a lot more attractive on the entertainment shelf, and the software interface (with wireless keyboard and mouse) is a lot friendlier to couch potatoes.

Maybe there's an as yet unreleased video library application or the new iLife upgrades will allow the use of iDVD and iMovie in this manner. I'd say that things look really dicey for the Windows Media PC.

Tuesday, January 11, 2005

Apple unveils $499 PC

The rumors were true:

Apple unveils $499 PC: "The new Mac Mini will go on sale Jan. 22 and will cost $499 for the base model, or $599 for one with a bigger hard drive. The device marks one of Apple's boldest moves yet to expand PC sales beyond a loyal but limited market of Mac addicts. The iPod and Apple's iTunes music store have been responsible for a dramatic surge in Apple revenue, but to date there has been little evidence that those products have done anything for Apple's PC business.
"

This is an extremely cool and important product for Apple. Missing from most of the stories about the product, but buried in the details on the Apple store site, is the fact that this is also an extremely scalable product. It is possible to order this computer configured with extra memory, high end drives, and wireless options that some Mac lovers consider
indispensable. (I love my wireless keyboard and mouse).

The floodgates have already opened, with reports of the first day of orders bringing the Apple Store website to it's knees. Unfortunate, but always a good sign.

Most importantly, this is another product that stimulates that most important marketing tool: Mac Envy. Hell, I've got a Powerbook and I've got Mac Envy! I'd really be dead if they had a spreadsheet in iWork.